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Calculating Your Possible Conception Date: A Professional Analysis


Question
Dear Catherine,
I drove myself almost mad by figure out the most possible date of conception, i need your professional idea urgently.

My last period is 16/03/2011 at morning 8am and last about 4 days .
-I had unprotected sex with partner#1 at 22/03/2011 in the morning 9:30am as well as 05/04/2011 in the afternoon.
-I had unprotected sex with hubby at 27/03/2011 in the evening around 9pm.

I got pregnancy positive result on 10/04/2011 , and further confirmed by using digital pregnancy test at 11/04 and 12/04, both showed 1-2 weeks pregnancy.

My first transvaginal scan was 05/05/2011 ,which was 7w+1d according to my lmp day, but doctor told me the crl is 0.77cm and gestional age is 6w+6D plus and minus 6days.

My second transabdominal u/s was 02/06/2011 ,which was 11w+1d based on my lmp,and crl is 5.06cm ,gestional age based on u/s is 11w+6 days.that worried me a lot, since it may indicate 5days earlier ovulation than expectation ( the expecation is based on the assumption of 28 days cycle starting from lmp and ovulate around 30/03/2011). this scan was from a different doctor ,and i felt the this doctor has much high tech u/s equipment than the first one.

My third scan was at 06/06/2011 for NT scan,which was 11w+5day based on lmp , and crl is 5.47cm, gestional age based on u/s is 12w+1day , still 3 days earlier than expectation.

Now i am very confused about the accuracy of u/s to date my conception,which one should i relied on ? yes you mentioned the transvaginal u/s is most accurate at 8-10weeks , but seemed i did it a bit earlier at 7 weeks.and i am also thinking if second high tech u/s can gave a better result?

Other useful information:

My hcg test at 14/04/2011 showed 604 and 9600 at 21/04/2011,which meant increased around 217% per 48 hours.if this worked consistently, i calculated back and noted i would possibly to release my hcg from 02/04/2011 with the starting point at 5.78miu.which also indicated that i may conceived as at 27/03 or 28/03,since hcg only released 6-7 days after conception.dose my guess make any sense?

My Period cycle history:

Nov to Dec of last yr is 28 days
Dec to Jan of this yr is 29 days
Jan to Feb of this yr is 24 days
Feb to Mar of this yr is 30 days
but 24 days cycle is really rare exception in my memory.

Now based on my lmp, u/s results , hcg, digital conception result.can you pl help me to figure out the most possible date of conception. i really hope this is my hubby's baby.
I now even consider do cvs or aminiotic fluid test for a peaceful mind ,i did sth very very wrong,and hope not get pregnant from that wrong thing.

Thanks sooooo much

Answer
Hello Linda,

Based on the information you've provided, your husband is most likely the father. Given
your test results, your cycle history and probable date of conception, it's most likely that
you did ovulate on or around the 30th.  As sperm can only live in the reproductive tract for up to 5 days, the date you had intercourse with your husband makes it more likely to be his baby.  However,
the only way to know for certain is a paternity test.  The further into pregnancy you have an ultrasound, the less accurate it becomes, which explains the variability in your results from one to the next.  Factors such as genetics, diet, etc are in effect which affect the baby's growth rate and is why some babies are born full term at 5 pounds while others are 11 pounds or larger.



Best,
Catherine Beier MS CBE
www.GivingBirthNaturally.com