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Pregnancy Timeline & Potential Father Identification - Medical Consultation


Question
Hi, I am 25 years old and pregnant with my first child.  My LMP was on Feb 4, 2005.  Here is my story and question.  On January 23, 2005 I had unprotected intercourse with a man.  He did not ejaculate in me.  I had my period on Feb 4, 2005.  It lasted the usual 5-6 days.  I also have a 22 day cycle.  Anyhow, on Feb 9, 2005 I slept with another man.  We had unprotected on Feb 9-13.  A qualitative serum test came up positive on Feb 24.  It was still negative for urine.  The tests are from a lab so they are pretty sensitive.  Then I had a quantitative HCG done on Feb 25.  The result was 13.  I had another BHCG done on Feb 28.  The result was 102.  Then I had a repeat on Mar 1 and it was 268. My first ultrasound was on March 21.  I was told I was 6 weeks and 3 days.  The next one was done on March 28 and I was told I was 7 weeks and 5 days.  The next was done on April 11 and I was told that the fetus measured 2.7 cm CRL and that I was 9 weeks and 3 days.  The next was done on April 25, 2005 and the fetus measured 4.3 cm CRL and I was told I was 11 weeks and 1 day.  My question...what are the chances that this child is from the encounter from Jan 23?  Everything dates back to my LMP.  I have given myself a headache with all these tests and results.  Please help me.  I have already told the second man he is the father and he doesn't know about the first man.  I have offered a paternity test to him once the child is born, but I need to feel some peace of mind now.  Any info or advice would be greatly appreciated.  Thank you.  

Answer
If your last period started on February 4, and you normally have a 22 day cycle, then ovulation occurred on cycle day #8 (since ovulation occurs 14 days PRIOR to the first day of your period). Therefore, you probably conceived on February 11 or 12. If so, a pregnancy test would show a positive result  14 days later, or around February 25. On March 21, you would be 6 weeks 2 days, on March 28, you would be 7 weeks 3 days, on April 11 you would be 9 weeks 3 days, and on April 25, you would be 11 weeks 3 days. All of these calculations agree with your sonographic measurements (plus or minus less than a week). Therefore, everything seems to point to your conception date of February 11, give or take 3 days in either direction.  Certainly, to be sure, a paternity test could be performed. However, you could not have conceived prior to your last period, nor earlier than 8 days after the start of your period.  I hope I have helped clear your mind.